March 23, 2005
The tipping point in Kyrgyzstan
-- as usual, Nathan has the events scrupulously precise. This is by far the busiest day I've ever witnessed on 'The Registan'. Nathan and Laurence, you're doing a great job! --
23/03/05
I remember I had a conversation with my former colleague David Hayes while events were unfolding in Ukraine last year. We thought about the tipping point that occurs at a special point in time and accelerates developments in a way few people would have predicted before.
The point of no return might have been reached in Kyrgyzstan today, but no one can tell how the coming scenario will look like. In two weeks time, observers and analysts will probably look back to the 23rd of March 2005, designating this Wednesday as Kyrgyzstan's point of no return.
It looks increasingly unlikely that a peaceful agreement with the opposition will be reached. Kyrgyzstan might be facing a crossroads: One way leads to further destabilisation, another might be Akaev's resignation and a peaceful takeover by the opposition with subsequent elections, or of course Akaev might as well be able to ferment his power. Adieu 'Island of Democracy'?. I don't like making forecasts, but I thought I might give it a try today...
The facts that speak for the 'tipping point' are manifold.
First, a crackdown on opposition movements which had already started yesterday, continued today with an ever more nasty trait. Bolotbek Maritov, famous journalist (who ran against Bermet Akaeva in Bishkek's university district) and Edil Baisalov, head of Bishkek-based Coalition for Free and Fair Elections, were both arrested.
Before, Bolot Shamshiev (film director) and Topschubek Turgunaliev (leader of the Kyrgyz Institute for Rights and Freedom) were arrested, too, as well as Shipar Schekshiev, another famous opposition figure. The charges brought forward remain unknown.
With Edil Baisalov, the Kyrgyz authorities are arresting one of the best-connected networkers within the country. Besides best working relations with international NGOs, Baisalov has also strong ties with numerous domestic organisations. I remember him from my time in Bishkek, he is an integral part of the club of 'civil society' in Kyrgyzstan.
It is not the first time Mr Baisalov has been harrassed by local authorities. See point 3) in this report, which dates back to 2003.
Second, Akaev's reactions are getting increasingly confuse: First, he called for negotiations with the opposition two days ago. Then, he dismissed the protests as being instigated by foreign powers and/or the drug mafia from Osh. Still, the government seems willing to continue 'to look for someone constructive to talk to,'' said Seghizbayev, Akaev's megaphone.
Protests might have been violent in part, especially in Jalalabad and Osh, the two southern cities that saw the biggest waves of demonstrations, resulting in violent takeovers of some of the cities' administrational buildings. However, there are also clear signs that this violent part of it is not the only notieceable thing happening. As said yesterday:
The situation is explosive, but most anti-Akayev demonstrators seem to be moderate. A group of 50 young men from the opposition camp has reinforced Osh police. (...) "Our common goal is security in the city", says the group's leader Basarbai Soltuev.
Akaev's administration seems to be in the defence. Their interpretation of the events becomes ever more grotesque. The firing of Interior Minister Subanbekov and Prosecutor-General Abdyldayev is rather a sign of weakness within the inner circles of power - and the nomination of hardliner Sutalinov, can further underline this.
Read this German-speaking comment on the situation. Karl Grobe has hit the nail on the hat in today's 'Frankfurter Rundschau'.
Third, the growing international attention shows that from now on, the eyes of the international community will be following the news more closely. Javier Solana, Joschka Fischer, Kofi Annan, etc. - all have made statements calling for negotiations and a peaceful settlement.
I believe that the three points indicate that the last two days have shown to be a tipping point. What do others think?
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