May 27, 2005
[Schwartz] ME - Memorial Day weekend updates
Horatio, something is rotten in the state of Egypt...
The Egyptian people have approved constitutional changes that open the way for multi-candidate presidential elections. According to official results 83% voted in favor for the changes. 54% of total registered voters went to the polls--not a heart-stopping turn-out, it's true, and in fact too reminiscent of past American turn-outs (we're lucky to get over 45% of the electorate), but decent nonetheless. [You might enjoy this BBC Online interactive graphic, How Democratic is the Middle East?]
Six opposition parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood, had called for a boycott of the referendum. They say that the amendments contain too many constraints for anyone to effectively challenge President Hosni Mubarak and his ruling National Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch has called on Egypt to investigate what it labels state-sponsored "plainclothes" (mukhbarat) police brutality against opposition demonstrators. The Human Rights Watch reports,
In Egypt, police and supporters of the ruling party attacked scores of pro-reform demonstrators and journalists yesterday, Human Rights Watch said today. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak must appoint an independent judicial panel to conduct a thorough investigation into these attacks.
Yesterday in Cairo, plainclothes security agents beat demonstrators, and riot police allowed—and sometimes encouraged—mobs of Mubarak supporters to beat and sexually assault protestors and journalists.
The BBC Online quotes George Ishak, spokesman for the Kifaya opposition movement: "We were shocked when our members were beaten and dragged on the streets. Some female colleagues were subjected to humiliation of a sexual nature."
If you are an Egyptian university student or youth activist in the age-range 18-28 and would like to correspond for Thinking-East, please contact me: te.schwartz at gmail.com
Meanwhile, in Iraq, a huge deployment of Iraqi soldiers is expected as early as next week. Iraqi Minister of Defense Saadoun ad-Dulaimi announced plans for more than 40,000 Iraqi soldiers to be deployed in Baghdad in a massive operation to hunt down insurgents. Mr. ad-Dulaimi said the capital would be split into seven areas of operation, and warned that security measures would be far more strict than had been seen before.
"We will also impose a concrete blockade around Baghdad, like a bracelet around an arm, God willing. No-one will be able to penetrate this blockade," Mr. ad-Dulaimi said. Mobile checkpoints shall also be used, the hope being that this will stop suicide bombers getting to the markets and the busy streets, where many people have been killed.
The operation may also be expanded to include other major cities.
I'm concerned. He's going to cut off Baghdad with a concrete barrier? And is he considering Mosul, Kirkuk, Sulaymeniah?
...I know it's supposed to sound like a "mop-up operation," but this is really sounding a little like the beginnings of a civil war. Think for a moment: a military occupation of Baghdad.
I don't want to be an alarmist. The perhaps Iraqis may have more success than the Americans did in Fallujah. After all, just as you would send an American to catch an American, send an Arab to catch an Arab. This time the soldiers can speak the language and understand cultural sensitivities, should know the likely hide-outs, etc.
But even if it doesn't erupt into civil war, this move could nevertheless become a bloodbath, and for several reasons. Arabs are not known for their military restraint (but then again, who is?), and the insurgents must see Baghdad as their prize. And what would happen if Mr. as-Sadr's boys get involved (again)? Finally, will this really solve the problem, or just rev up the wheel of vendetta which has spun so much, so bloodily, so pointlessly in the Middle East?
Finally, I find it funny how Mr. ad-Dulaimi's idea seems to mirror so closely the thinking of the Israel Defense Force's re-occupation of Palestinian Authority territories. Checkpoints? Concrete walls? Hmmm... Honestly, it is a vastly different situation in Iraq than in the Holy Land, but the devil in me can't help but chuckle.
Bush has pledged aid to the Palestinians--$50 million, in fact, paid directly to the Palestinian Authority. Mr. Abbas is the first Palestinian leader to be hosted by Mr. Bush.
The new aid is part of a $350m package earmarked for the Palestinians. The money is supposed to go to fund housing and infrastructure projects in the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, the BBC Online covers HAMAS's bid for power in Palestinian society.
Meanwhile, in Iran, guess who's back? The BBC Online also has a fascinating article on Iranian-Canadians, entitled, "From Tehran to Toronto".
If you are an Iranian university student or youth activist in the age-range 18-28 and would like to correspond for Thinking-East, please contact me: te.schwartz at gmail.com
This weekend I'll be going down to Philadelphia to be with my lovely, so I won't be making any updates until at least Tuesday, May 31st.
Posted by Schwartz at May 27, 2005 07:29 PM | TrackBack