Akaev speaks on Russian Radio

Thanks to Elnura Osmonalieva, we've got the transcription AND translation of (ex-) President Akaev's interview with 'Echo Moskvy':

29 March 2005
5:00 pm Moscow time

Echo Moskvy, "Proverka sluha", special issue

Q: Thank you for letting to get in touch with you. There is a lot of information about Kirgizia now, everyone beside you had spoken. Where are you now?

A: I am now in Russia, in Moscow suburbs. I am very grateful to President Putin who invited me to stay here.

Q: How shall we call or refer to you now?

A: I am still the only popularly elected and legitimate president of Kyrgyzstan and my term is over on 31 October 2005. I have not resigned.

Q: It does not seem like you plan to do it.

А: I do not any reason or basis for my resignation.

Q: Where were you on 24 March?

A: Since morning I was at my workplace on the 7th flour of the Government House, had meetings, work on running the country was going as normal.

Q: Where were you when the storm started?

A: The opposition stated that it would hold a peaceful demonstration on the main square Ala-Too, which is seen well from the window of my office. Till that day we had a constant dialogue with the opposition leaders, they convinced us that there would be a peaceful demonstration that is why we did not prevent it. But instead of a peaceful demonstration there suddenly was a violent take-over of the Government House. Half an hour before the seizure of the Government House I left the building, since the storm started to look more like a battle, where one side had an advantage over the other - thousands of young men, who opposition brought, while the Government House was defending itself with a small number of police and National Guards, who we ordered not to use force. From windows we saw them being violently beaten up, humiliated, thrown stones and bottles at. The security service demanded that I leave the building then.

Q: You said that you had a continuous negotiation with the opposition leaders. They are saying that they did not plan to take power this way. Do you think that they are saying truth? What provoked these events?

A: From early on the opposition planned to take over power, not in a peaceful way as it happened in Kiev and Tbilisi. Their goal was not to have negotiations. For instance, on March 22nd deputies of the newly elected Parliament were sworn in and created a deputy commission which was supposed to define platform and format of negotiations. But the opposition did not agree to that, not on the 22nd, not on the 23rd.

Opposition brought its men from villages from various regions. That is something opposition leaders mentioned themselves. That is why at their recent meetings they said that their share of power should correspond to the number of people each of them brought to the demonstration. All demonstration participants were from other places, there was not a single Bishkek resident among them.

Q: How did you security deal with it?

A: They were very brave, collected, acted clearly and at the last moment, half an hour before the seizure:before this there was information about assassination attempt:opposition gave out the order that did not exclude my physical extermination.

Q: Where was your family on March 24th?

A: The family was in our summer house. Bermet and Aidar were in the parliament. My wife and grandchildren were in the summer house.

Q: There are many questions from Bishkek. People there would like to know your opinion on many things.

Q: Were will you leave? Who should be the next president?

A: Kyrgyzstan is my country, my motherland. I will of course return when there will be constitutional order, when rights and liberties will be protected. I am sure that our wise people will elect a worthy president, that is why I was re-elected several times. That is why I did not choose replacement.

Q: You will not run for office in the upcoming elections?

A: In 2000 I announced that this would be my last term. I repeatedly stated it. I am against changing the Constitution, it should be saved with great
care; I am not going to run again. I just want the new president to be legitimate and for there to be constitutional elections.

Q: Will you hold negotiations with the new power? With who?

A: The new Parliament is the only legitimate power now, which elected Omurbek Tekebaev, who is a representative of democratic opposition forces, as its speaker. I congratulate him with that. He was my contester at the last Presidential Elections, we always had an honest fight, he is the only legitimate leader - I will have negotiations with him.

Q: You do not recognize other opposition activists?

A: The current government is illegitimate. Opposition leaders today did not manage to keep things in the framework of the Constitution, they overtook power in violation of the Constitution. I am ready to have negotiations, to help the new Parliament and the Speaker of the new Parliament.

Q: Would you confirm the authenticity of statements sent on your behalf via e-mail?

A: Yes, I confirm that. I forwarded two appeals for the people of Kyrgyzstan via e-mail, since I did not have access to other media. My computer is
always with me, so I used it and wrote the statements myself.

Q: Countries, who have signed the agreement on collective security, offered you help - why didn't you accept when there was a chance?

A: I thought that it was an issue of internal nature and that external interference could somehow complicate everything , that is why I did not use that offer.

Q: Did you think about introducing state of extraordinaire in Kyrgyzstan before the seizure of the Government House happened?

A: From the very start I was against using arms, which eventually lead to seizure of the Government House, but I admit that I would not dream of this in my worst nightmare, that these young men, these criminal elements, which were hired by the opposition, would be moved on to do looting and stealing. I was in shock when I saw the pictures on TV. I have a great sense of guilt before the Bishkek residents for not being able to prevent this. If I knew, I would have done everything to protect them, but unfortunately I could not predict that people would start looting the whole city.

Q: There was an impression that Kirgizia was on the verge of civil war. Did that threat diminish now?

A: Yes, its beyond that. That is why I was against using arms. My last order to the Internal Affairs Minister Duishebaev was not to use arms, because it would lead to interregional and interethnic conflict and civil war. Power is not worth one single drop of blood. I am still convinced that was a right decision.

Q: Do you see the wrongs of your policies and how do you view them now? Don't you think that your son and daughters running for the parliament complicated the political situation? What would you not have done again if you had the chance?

A: Of course, there is an old Russian saying - "One who does not work, does not make mistakes". Naturally, I made many mistakes during the years of presidency. We admitted them, corrected them. There were many mistakes, but I was convinced that the country was going the right direction. We were called "the island of democracy", we conducted large-scale economic reforms. The world community recognised us as leader of economic reforms in our region, people's welfare grew in the last years. But most importantly there were peace and stability - which OSCE saw as exemplary not only for post-Soviet states but for the European countries as well. However, there were many mistakes, of course, it is difficult to list all of them. Daughter and son - this is international practice. Why couldn't President's children choose their independent political path of development? For instance, America - Kennedy family, Bush - father and son, the brother is a governor. I think that this is over-exaduration, another myth created by the opposition. My children went trough the people's sieve, I think it is normal. There are many mistakes, to go throughh them all would be tiresome.

Q: Kulov has stated that your property would not be nationalized. Is it true that just one car is listed in your declaration?

A: I don't remember what's in the declaration. Everything is laid out in "the Law on President of KR". There is a myth that all of Kyrgyzstan is Akaev and his family's property. If to believe myths of the opposition, then I own half of Moscow, I have property in Switzerland and Turkey:I own half the world.

Q: When in fact you have nowhere to live?

A: In fact we are here as guests and are very grateful for warm hospitality.

Q: Why won't you come to Bishkek and speak before the people? Kulov and Bakiev have said that you have immunity. Do you believe them?

A: AT the moment neither Bakiev nor Kulov have legitimacy and thus cannot be guaranteeing me security and immunity. Yes, they are leaders of opposition, they are rulers - but they do not have constitutional legitimacy, such guarantees can be given only by the Speaker of the Parliament and the Parliament itself, as a legitimate organ of the Kyrgyz Republic. If there are guarantees, I will return to Kyrgyzstan definitely. I wish to help the Parliament so the new President is elected legitimately. Kyrgyzstan will be vulnerable because the opposition will have a new opposition and they might go for a similar anti-constitutional seizure of power. I would like to help to have constitutional elections.

Q: Where is Tanaev? (Prime Minister who resigned recently)

A: We are in touch with him. He is now in Kyrgyzstan.

Q: What advice would you give to other Central Asian presidents and Putin?

A: I would suggest, since we, all Central Asain states, are now countries, building democracy: - if the country is going in the right direction, it can be assumed that democracy will protect itself. What I learned from this is that democracy in our region is still weak and cannot protect itself - it needs to be protected, with use of force if necessary

I am very worried for the fate of my country. I am afraid that this will draw the country back. We have accomplished a lot. Investors left the country, the new ones are not coming soon. Local businesses have suffered - they were mainly in Bishkek, it is looted, it will be very difficult to keep the economy under control. I am worried, wherever I am, I will help the country and the people in whatever way I can.

Q: How did the international academia react - did they show their support?

A: I am truly grateful to my friends-scientists of Russia, there is a lot between us; they have shown great moral support.

Q: Did any external factors play a role? Is there a threat of Islamic radicalism?

A: Of course there was external influence. We knew about the tulip revolution, as it is called now. These events took place as a result of desire on part of several international organizations to force democratic processes. It resulted in anti-constitutional over throw of power. Some Hizb-ut-Tahrir people wanted to help certain deputies. If there will be destabilization again then Islamic groups might take advantage of the situation.

Q: Thank you very much for your time. You may use our services again when desired. Last comment from Bishkek, Yulia from Bishkek writes: "I am very sorry that the country lost such a president". With this we end our programme, good bye.

A: Thank you, good bye.

KelKel reports

A friend from Bishkek sends her thoughts on what happened lately:

"It is still hard to realize that people’s velvet revolution took place in Kyrgyzstan. It reached its final end very spontaneously. No one expected that White House would be captured in 2 hours."

"Kyrgyz Opposition and demonstrators were expecting to protest peacefully on the Ala-Too Square as long as it would take for resignation of Akaev. They were planning to set up “boz uis”- yirtas and kitchen tents there and protest peacefully."

"But as Abdujalil mentioned some people with blue scarves around their arms provocated peaceful demonstrators by throwing stones at them. Demonstrators were not wild and among them were rural and Bishkek people as well."

"Concerning irregularities in White House and marauders need to be researched because there are many contradictions and unclear things. Some sources say that it was planned by previous government and those marauders were the same people who provocated the peaceful demonstrators by throwing stones, who were with blue scarves around their arms."

"I admit that there was chaos in Bishkek in the first night after velvet revolution. Fortunately the situation is being stabilized with the help of police and narodnye drugenniki, which are voluntarily helping to make order and to protect our city."

"KelKel is taking very active position in mobilizing youth to organize groups of narodnye drujenniki and to assist to police and other security institutions to make order and provide security in Bishkek. Other information about our revolution and about KelKel activity you can read at our website: www.kelkel-kg.org"

"There are different people and therefore there are different interpretations of Kyrgyz velvet revolution. Hope the irregularities happened in Bishkek will not continue anymore and are the only negative consequences of people’s revolution. Wind of changes is blowing in Kyrgyzstan and hope it will bring better life for my people."

Update Kyrgyzstan

The past two days were heavily packed with Thinking-East work, but now the result is online (see earlier post).

Well, a lot has been happening in Kyrgyzstan - and I've been discussing the situation with a German journalist and also another 'expert'. By the latter, I refer to a staffer of the 'Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik' (Germany's foreign policy think-tank), who has given an interview to Germany's best-visited website, the online edition of 'Der Spiegel', Spiegel Online. The article is available in English now for your reading pleasure. Well, it's not a pleasure, let me tell you that straight away.

Alexander Rahr can certainly claim to be an expert on Russian affairs and many other issues, but his Kyrgyzstan wisdom remains cloudy. I've written a letter to him (in German), though I doubt he'll answer. Though the interview is already a couple of days old, it's still worth reading in order to get a clue of what the German media takes up.

According to my sister, today's 'Bild am Sonntag' (tabloid) runs a small story on Kyrgyzstan:

"The upheaval in Kyrgyzstan is mostly initiated by mafia-clans", and "the situation is reminiscent of Iraq shortly after Saddam's downfall - a disoriented mass is vandalising and looting shops". Well you see what I mean...

A German journalist based in Moscow proved to be a lot more knowledgable. I replied to him (also in German) here and after his initial reply again here.

This editorial letters took my attention away from the blog - and now there's a lot of coursework to be done. I'll try to make a round-up tomorrow. In the meanwhile, check out 'The Registan', where Nathan, Laurence and Andy are doing a helluva job covering events in Bishkek.

Thinking-East 2.0

Thinking-East is proud to announce the publication of Issue 2.0. There is a lot of good stuff in it, this edition features:

Elnura's chronology of events, plus her pictures
Chingiz' view from Turkey
Daler on trouble in Tajikistan
Olesya on failed parliamentary reform in Uzbekistan
Ali's Iraqi Out-of-Country Election analysis
Sipan's account from Kurdistan
Schwartz' intro for 'The East in The West'
Mahaiyun's view on America's Academy
Michael's thoughts on Fear of Controversy in the US media
Imran's pessimistic take on a Indo-Pak pipeline
Benjamin Marcus' thoughts on oil

My article on the Caspian Sea is late... Well, hopefully I'll make it before I am off to Denmark.

Go check out Thinking-East now

Korrespondenz mit Journalisten

Lieber Herr Mrozek,

vielen Dank für Ihre Antwort.

Sie haben schon teilweise Recht, wenn Sie große Teile der Opposition in die Nord-Nomenklatura einordnen; zumindest trifft dies die Situation genauer, als sie von Herrn Rahr in seinem jüngsten Spiegel-Interview geschildert wurde. Jedoch muss ich auch einschränkende Worte fassen: Inwieweit die verschiedenen Regierungsämter die Oppositionspolitiker zu 'Hauptstädtern' und Teilen des Establishments transformiert haben, kann man nur sehr schwer einschätzen. Beziehen wir die vielfach im zentralasiatischen Kontext zitierte Clan-Loyalität mit ein, wird die ganze Angelegenheit schon viel komplizierter. Ich würde Bakiev und Otunbaeva (insbesondere) nicht unbedingt unterstellen wollen, blind gegenüber den Bedürfnissen ihrer Herkunftsorte zu sein. Viele Analysten (wie z.B. Murad Esenov) denken eher, dass in Bakiev und Kulov zwei Kontrahenten bestehen, gerade weil sie aus dem Süden bzw. Norden kommen.

Der Nord-Süd-Konflikt, den Sie ansprechen, könnte jedoch natürlich aufflammen. Wissen tut man darüber im Moment nichts. Während meiner Zeit in Bishkek jedenfalls habe ich etwas interessantes erlebt. In der Organisation, in der ich mein Praktikum absolviert habe, arbeiteten in der Mehrzahl Leute vom Land, die vor einigen Jahren in die Hauptstadt gezogen waren. 'Ureinwohner' Bishkeks, deren Familien schon seit einigen Generation dort lebten, waren nicht sonderlich beliebt; der typische Großstadt-Provinz-Konflikt eben. Man sollte daher aber auch nicht vergessen, dass Bishkek's Einwohnerzahl in den letzten zwanzig Jahren unheimlich angestiegen ist, gerade wegen dieser zugezogenen Menschen vom Lande. Die Familien der Neueinwohner sind zum großen Teil im Süden verblieben. Bishkek ist somit nicht nur eine Insel inmitten ländlicher Räume, sondern auch derer Schmelztiegel. Dies hat sich in der Vergangenheit etabliert und wird sich auch erneut auf das zukünftige Machtgefüge auswirken.

Territoriale Konflikte können jedoch durchaus eine Rolle spielen, wie im Moment die Drohgebärden aus Talas zeigen. Fraglich ist jedoch nur, ob diese tatsächlich Ausdruck eines Szenarios Region-gegen-Region sind. Vielmehr sehe ich - wie auch sie - ökonomische Aspekte als schwelende Grundlage. Es sind beispielsweise bei weitem nicht alle Menschen in Talas mit den neuen Zuständen unzufrieden und drohen mit dem Marsch gen Bishkek. Auch in Talas gab es Günstlinge und Verlierer des wirtschaftlichen Wandels und des Nepotismus. Die krassesten Beispiele sind hier wohl Günstlinge Akaev's in Talas, die in der Region weitesgehend das politische und wirtschaftliche Sagen haben. Revolutionen produzieren nun einmal immer ihre Gewinner und Verlierer.

Ethnische Konflikte (und da hoffe ich inständig, dass ich recht habe) werden keine Rolle spielen. Meine Professorin ist davon ebenso überzeugt. Gerade dass die Akaev-Emissäre mit ihrer Anzettelei erfolglos blieben, könnte ein ermunterndes Zeichen sein. Kirgisen und Usbeken wissen noch genau, was 1992 geschehen ist, und werden hoffentlich nicht zwischen sich den Schuldigen suchen. Ich erwarte diesbezüglich auch ein Signal der neuen Regierung; ein Usbeke im Kabinett wäre eine Möglichkeit.

Der knackende Punkt bei der Analyse der Situation in Kirgisien ist jedoch meiner Meinung nach ein anderer: Inwieweit werden die Führer der Interimsregierung imstande sein, wahrhaft demokratische Strukturreformen einzuleiten und sich von krasser Korruption, Oligarchie und anderen unschönen Erscheinungen der post-sowjetischen Zeit zu emanzipieren? Die Menschen werden dem relativ schnell gewahr werden. Man kann die Ausprägung der neuen und alten Elite zur Zeit auch nicht genau feststellen, die Karriere und die Aussagen von Kulov, Bakiev, und Co lassen zugleich Hoffnung und Verzweiflung zu. Gegenpole zu der, wie Sie diese nennen, Nord-Nomenklatura könnten solche Personen wie z.B. Beknazarov bilden - Regionalpolitiker mit wahren Intentionen und großer Beliebtheit in ihren Wahlkreisen. Mir würden hier insbesondere einige Politiker aus Naryn, Batken, und sogar auch Talas einfallen. Murad Esenov sagte heute: "Wenn die neuen Machthaber es ernst meinen mit der Demokratie, werden sicher bald neue Namen und in Zukunft auch neue Regierungen auftauchen."

Hoffen wir, dass es was wird.

Beste Grüße,

Ben Paarmann

Zweiter Leserbrief

Sehr geehrter Herr Mrozek, einige Kommentare zu Ihrem Artikel auf SpiegelOnline:

"Rachmonow hat es bisher geholfen, dass in Usbekistan etwa 30.000 Menschen aus politischen Gründen hinter Gitter sitzen."

- Der Präsident Usbekistans heißt Islam Karimow. Rachmonow ist Präsident Tadschikistans.

"Aber alle großen Figuren der jetzt siegreichen Opposition sind Vertreter der Nomenklatura, der Hauptstadt und des Nordens. Sie werden es auf dem Lande und im Süden genauso schwer haben, Unterstützung zu finden wie Akajew."

- Die sich im Moment als Opposition (und zusehends Interimregierung) profilierenden Personen kommen alle aus unterschiedlichen Regionen. Kulov stammt aus Bishkek, Otunbaeva aus Osh, Beknazarov aus Aksy, und Bakiev aus Jalalabad und Ishenbai Kadyrbekov stammt aus dem südostlichen Naryn. Die Protestwelle ist vom Süden aus nach Bishkek übergeschwappt. Viele der Demonstranten sind in Bussen eigens aus Osh und Jalalabad nach Bishkek gekommen.

"Im Süden, im Ferganatal bei Osch gibt es islamisch inspirierte Untergrundgruppen, die sich in den Bürgerkriegen von Tadschikistan und Afghanistan ausreichend viel Kampferfahrung antrainiert haben. Als destabilisierendes Element wirkt zusätzlich der lang schwelende Hass zwischen Kirgisen und Usbeken, der sich 1990 zu blutigen Pogromen gegen die usbekische Minderheit entladen hatte."

- Auf kirgisischem Staatsgebiet hat die IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) keine Trainingsbasen und auch wenige Unterstützer. Es ist in den letzten Jahren eh ruhig um diese Terroristen-Vereinigung geworden. Auch in Batken, im Sommer 2000 und 2001 Schauplatz heftiger Kämpfe zwischen Regierung und Rebellen, herrschen wieder völlig normale Verhältnisse. Wenn die IMU noch aktiv ist, so ist sie das vornehmlich im tadschikischen Badachschan oder im Norden Afghanistans.

Auch die inter-ethnischen Spannungen die sie ansprechen, sind etwas weit hergeholt. Die Osh-Krise 1992 war eine schreckliche und blutige 'Ausnahme'. Seither sind beide Seiten eher um Aussöhnung bemüht. Auch die Proteste in Jalalabad und Osh bereiteten dessen Ausdruck: Kirgisen und Usbeken waren vereint auf den Straßen zu sehen (http://www.registan.net/?p=4783).

Ansonsten jedoch gefiel mir Ihr Artikel sehr gut; er war bis jetzt die beste Analyse zum Thema auf SpiegelOnline.

Mit freundlichen Grüßen,

Benjamin Paarmann

Calm Morning?

Thinking-East has just published Elnura's accounts. Click here for her article, and here for supplementing pictures.

Also, I've written a letter to Spiegel Online about this interview with Central Asia 'expert' Alexander Rahr.

UPDATE BELOW

Elnura writes from Bishkek:

The unexpected revolution created chaos, but hopefully not a long one. This morning military and police, now under leadership of newly released Felix Kulov, came out to Bishkek streets to restore order.

It seems that it were mainly residents from Bishkek:

[T]here were crowds that many local people recognized as residents of Bishkek who were looting malls and smaller shops taking out goods starting from yogurt to furniture. Most of the protesters came from the rural areas and are known to have harsh discipline, therefore it is unlikely that many of them participated in the looting.

This is (or better was) the Beta Store, the biggest and most exclusive supermarket in Bishkek. Opposite the road is the DemirBank, the largest bank facility in Bishkek.

Now, the situation has calmed down, Elnura's report is confirmed by Akaevu.net:

The situation in Bishkek begins to be stabilized this Friday 25 March 2005. Police is back at almost in full strength working together with volunteers. Both police and volunteer forces wear on their arms red bandages. The police and volunteers operate together, coordinating their actions with the ROVD of Bishkek, directing their brigades to the necessary points. Brigades erect encompassments around the important buildings, in the case of the possible attack of marauders. However, according to the communication of the members of national guard, looting and hooliganism has stopped. Felix Kulov has apparently regained the upper hand of a situation that seemed out of control.

Posted by Ben at 10:58 AM

Leserbrief an SpiegelOnline

Kommentar zu: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,348297,00.html

Alexander Rahr gilt zwar als Zentralasienexperte, jedoch entspricht er diesem Ruf in seinem jüngsten Interview auf Spiegel Online leider nicht.

"Doch im Gegensatz zu zentralasiatischen Nachbarstaaten waren kirgisische Präsidenten von eher liberaler Natur, dem Westen hin zugewandt und haben sich nicht wie manch anderer Regierungschef aus der Region auf Lebenszeit wählen lassen."

- Askar Akaev war der erste und einzige Präsident der zentralasiatischen Republik. Dem Westen hin zugewandt war er, das stimmt. Jedoch hat er auch auf eine gute Balance mit Russland Wert gelegt.

"Von einem friedlichen Verlauf kann keine Rede mehr sein."

- Die Proteste der letzten Tage haben entgegenlautenden Berichten zufolge keine Todesopfer gefordert. Man muss schon sagen, dass dies hinsichtlich heutiger Fernsehbilder ein Wunder ist. Vom 'Rande eines Bürgerkrieges' zu sprechen, ist jedoch arg überspitzt.

"Hier kämpfen Clans aus dem Süden des Landes gegen Clans aus dem kirgisischen Norden."

- So beliebt die Clan-These auch sein mag - erklären tut sie die ganze Wahrheit in Kirgisien kaum. Die sich im Moment als Opposition (und zusehends Interimregierung) profilierenden Personen kommen alle aus unterschiedlichen Regionen. Kulov stammt aus Bishkek, Otunbaeva aus Osh, Beknazarov aus Aksy, und Bakiev aus Jalalabad. Der Interimspräsident Ishenbai Kadyrbekov stammt aus dem südostlichen Naryn.

"Es gilt als gesichert, das die Protestbewegung gegen Präsident Akajew breite Unterstützung von Drogen- und Waffenkartellen erfährt, die ein durch einen Staatsstreich hervorgerufenes Machtvakuum für ihre Zwecke missbrauchen wollen."

- Diese These möchte ich gerne belegt sehen. Die einzigen, die vehement diese Verbindung beschwört haben, waren Akaev und sein Sprecher Segizbayev. Osh, Hochburg der Drogen- und Menschenschmuggelei, beherbergt tatsächlich einige graue Eminenzen, die sich für wahr im neuen Kirgisien Einfluss verschaffen werden wollen. Diese relativ eindeutige Sachlage lässt jedoch nicht zu, die Protestbewegung als von Kartellen beeinflusst und unterstützt abzuwerten.

Der Terminus Staatsstreich impliziert einen illegitimen Charakter des Umsturzes. Dies sehe ich nicht so.

"Der anfänglich friedliche Protest aber wurde im Laufe der Zeit von demokratiefeindlichen und gewaltbereiten Kräften unterwandert. Die gesamte Bewegung hat eine gefährliche Eigendynamik entwickelt."

- Da bringt Herr Rahr anscheinend die Chronologie etwas durcheinander. Als in Osh die größten Unruhen stattfanden, verstärkten viele friedlich Protestierende die einheimische Polizei. Das hatte Spiegel Online selbst berichtet: "Eine Gruppe von 50 jungen Männern aus dem Oppositionslager hat die Polizei verstärkt, nachdem die Hälfte der Beamten angesichts der Unruhen vom Montag zunächst nicht mehr zum Dienst angetreten ist. "Unser gemeinsames Ziel ist die Sicherheit in der Stadt", sagt der Führer der Gruppe, Basarbai Soltujew."

Die angeführten Punkte sollen demonstrieren, dass vermeintliche Zentralasien-Experten nicht per se als Referenz gelten sollten. Die Unruhen in Kirgisien sind nichtsdestotrotz besorgniserregend. Hoffen wir, dass es weitgehend gewaltlos bleibt.

Mit freundlichen Grüßen
Benjamin Paarmann
www.paarmann.info/blog
www.thinking-east.net

Some background on the people to come

*** This site is only sporadically available. Some technical problems. ***

Rosa Otunbaeva:
Much has been said about her already, and before the protests began to heat up, she was the most vocal representative of the opposition. Her CV is here. Born in Osh

Felix Kulov:
There is much stuff on him here. His "Dignity" party's website (www.ar-namys.org) is still offline. His CV is here. Has been in prison since 2000. Poor man, first day of freedom and instantly back to work: "The Parliament named Opposition leader Felix Kulov as chief of the nation’s top security ministries." Born in Bishkek

Ishenbai Kadyrbekov
Is Kyrgyzstan's new interim President. Nathan dug up this story. He is from Naryn (South-East of Bishkek). His nomination could be a sign that politicians from Osh and Jalalabad oblasts will not take over Bishkek. From Naryn-oblast

Azimbek Beknazarov
Popular judge-turned politician from the South. Was imprisoned for open criticism in 2002, after which followed the Aksy incident, during which five of his followers were killed by riot police. His CV is here. Born in Kara-Suu, Aksy-Raion.

Kurmanbek Bakiev
RFE/RL has the story. His CV is here. Most vocal opposition representative during the protests. From Jalalabad-Oblast.

This will be continuously updated.

Neighbouring countries react (or not)

Interesting story from AP (via Newsday):

Uzbek state television plays down events:

(S)tate-run television news did not mention the uprising in Kyrgyzstan as breaking news. It did have a one-minute, matter-of-fact report on the events in the capital of Bishkek at the end of the program, which was full of the usual praise for the Uzbek government.

Kazakhstan is cautious:

(T)elevision channels did not mention the crisis engulfing its neighbor in news broadcasts until early evening. (...) Kazakhstan closed its border with Kyrgyzstan in late afternoon, a Kazakh security official told the Interfax news agency.

Tajikistan play events down:

(T)he state television played down the Kyrgyz revolution, reporting at the end of its news broadcasts that opposition supporters had seized control of some government buildings.

And finally Turkmenistan's state television brought an old story:

State television showed day-old footage of a visit by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, who had come to discuss gas supplies with Turkmen leader Saparmurat Niyazov, who declared himself president-for-life several years ago.

Well, isn't Yushchenko's appearance on Turkmen TV also a sign on such a day?

Edil's vision

Edil Baisalov, whom I reported being arrested, was freed yesterday. He gave a BBC interview earlier today and has already laid out his plans for the future:

Edil Baisalov, head of a prominent non-governmental organization that monitored the disputed parliamentary elections, told The Associated Press that a new presidential vote might occur in May or June, to be followed later by parliamentary elections.

Also, Rosa Otunbaeva gave an interview to Germany's 'TAZ', titled: "This is no peasant revolution!" She refutes the widely held belief that the opposition is fragmented and not unified:

We are working closely together, contact each other on a daily basis and are not contesting. The fact that there is no leader can also be an advantage. A multilayered opposition is more difficult to crush.

That's an interesting point.

Looting in Bishkek

Austria's 'Kurier' reports of looting taking place in Bishkek:

According to a Western eye-witness, the situation in Bishkek is 'absolutely chaotic'. (...) Supermarkets are being looted and European-looking foreigners assaulted. He himself has already been attacked by a 'drunk Kyrgyz'. (...) The person can observe how the mob is walking through the streets, demolishing and looting little shops.

Furthermore, according to the source, guests of the [only] five-star hotel Hyatt were asked to leave the building. The danger of violent vandalism was evaluated as being too high.

A view from abroad

Thinking-East's next issue will feature an article written by a Kyrgyz living in Istanbul, only being able to follow events from Istanbul:

However radical and unexpected Akaev’s ouster may seem, it stands in line with the velvet revolutions in the former Soviet Union, and in greater scale, conforms to the flow of history: discontented nations sooner or later overthrow their repressive authorities. Whatever the circumstances behind the latest events in Kyrgyzstan may be, now that Kyrgyz people persisted and managed to express their will, they may be proud to be named as the most democratic in the Central Asia.

Akaev resigns, according to Euronews

Akaevu says, that television station Euronews has reported that Akayev signed a statement about his resignation.

The website is not updated though.

Will Felix Kulov unite the opposition?

Mr Felix Kulov, what happens next?

In half an hour, Felix Kulov will address the nation on TV. The station had got into the protesters' hands before. People were gathering in front of the prison were Kulov is held. They demand his release.

Events are changing every second - and Nathan has just started posting.

I'll stop here. My heart and my thoughts are with my friends in Bishkek.

REVOLUTION

Только что участниками митинга был взят Белый Дом! Акаевский режим свергнут!

Sometimes, things just happen so quickly. Yesterday, I made silly forecasts and today, the White House in Bishkek falls to the protesters:

Protesters have forced their way into Kyrgyzstan's main government building on, with one waving a national flag from the second floor of the building and another throwing papers from an upper-storey window.

David Mikosz, head of IFES in Bishkek, says, it's a revolution:

No word yet on what this means or if there will be a counter-revolution but from what I saw today it was a clear revolution.

It must have happened around 2 pm according to Akaevu.net*. They said at around 9:50 British time:

From 5 to 15 thousand supporters of opposition have gathered on the main square of the capital Bishkek. At this moment, as Reuters reports, about a thousand of activists began the storming of the White House.

A picture from the same source, showing today's massive protests in the capital.

Before that, tensions rose due to an attack of pro-Akaev people (earlier called 'proto-Fascists').

"There is a fight going on with sticks and stones between thousands of people," Solovyov said. "It's volatile and people are running in all directions, chasing each other with sticks and stones."

Nevertheless, security forces let the protesters proceed when they took on the White House. There, they brought several people under their control:

The demonstrators brought several high-ranking ministers under control. Essen Topoiev (defence), as well as head of the intelligence service Kalyk Imankulov are in the protesters' custody. Also, Akaev's office has been stormed. He had been in the building two hours before, report Russian media.

The exact whereabouts of the previous leadership are unknown.

*About Akaevu.net:

The regime of Akaev has started the massive attack on the most popular websites of Kyrgyzstan www.gazeta.kg and www.kyrgyz.us both at home and abroad. We continue fighting for freedoms of speech and press, that is why the gazeta.kg team is launching a new website www.akaevu.net informing the visitors about the latest news. The authorities can keep trying to shut down as many websites as they want, but they will never make us keep silent. This mailing list will travel from one domain to another together with the database of users. We will do our best in keeping the world informed!

The tipping point in Kyrgyzstan

-- as usual, Nathan has the events scrupulously precise. This is by far the busiest day I've ever witnessed on 'The Registan'. Nathan and Laurence, you're doing a great job! --

23/03/05

I remember I had a conversation with my former colleague David Hayes while events were unfolding in Ukraine last year. We thought about the tipping point that occurs at a special point in time and accelerates developments in a way few people would have predicted before.

The point of no return might have been reached in Kyrgyzstan today, but no one can tell how the coming scenario will look like. In two weeks time, observers and analysts will probably look back to the 23rd of March 2005, designating this Wednesday as Kyrgyzstan's point of no return.

It looks increasingly unlikely that a peaceful agreement with the opposition will be reached. Kyrgyzstan might be facing a crossroads: One way leads to further destabilisation, another might be Akaev's resignation and a peaceful takeover by the opposition with subsequent elections, or of course Akaev might as well be able to ferment his power. Adieu 'Island of Democracy'?. I don't like making forecasts, but I thought I might give it a try today...

The facts that speak for the 'tipping point' are manifold.

First, a crackdown on opposition movements which had already started yesterday, continued today with an ever more nasty trait. Bolotbek Maritov, famous journalist (who ran against Bermet Akaeva in Bishkek's university district) and Edil Baisalov, head of Bishkek-based Coalition for Free and Fair Elections, were both arrested.

Before, Bolot Shamshiev (film director) and Topschubek Turgunaliev (leader of the Kyrgyz Institute for Rights and Freedom) were arrested, too, as well as Shipar Schekshiev, another famous opposition figure. The charges brought forward remain unknown.

With Edil Baisalov, the Kyrgyz authorities are arresting one of the best-connected networkers within the country. Besides best working relations with international NGOs, Baisalov has also strong ties with numerous domestic organisations. I remember him from my time in Bishkek, he is an integral part of the club of 'civil society' in Kyrgyzstan.

It is not the first time Mr Baisalov has been harrassed by local authorities. See point 3) in this report, which dates back to 2003.

Second, Akaev's reactions are getting increasingly confuse: First, he called for negotiations with the opposition two days ago. Then, he dismissed the protests as being instigated by foreign powers and/or the drug mafia from Osh. Still, the government seems willing to continue 'to look for someone constructive to talk to,'' said Seghizbayev, Akaev's megaphone.

Protests might have been violent in part, especially in Jalalabad and Osh, the two southern cities that saw the biggest waves of demonstrations, resulting in violent takeovers of some of the cities' administrational buildings. However, there are also clear signs that this violent part of it is not the only notieceable thing happening. As said yesterday:

The situation is explosive, but most anti-Akayev demonstrators seem to be moderate. A group of 50 young men from the opposition camp has reinforced Osh police. (...) "Our common goal is security in the city", says the group's leader Basarbai Soltuev.

Akaev's administration seems to be in the defence. Their interpretation of the events becomes ever more grotesque. The firing of Interior Minister Subanbekov and Prosecutor-General Abdyldayev is rather a sign of weakness within the inner circles of power - and the nomination of hardliner Sutalinov, can further underline this.

Read this German-speaking comment on the situation. Karl Grobe has hit the nail on the hat in today's 'Frankfurter Rundschau'.

Third, the growing international attention shows that from now on, the eyes of the international community will be following the news more closely. Javier Solana, Joschka Fischer, Kofi Annan, etc. - all have made statements calling for negotiations and a peaceful settlement.

I believe that the three points indicate that the last two days have shown to be a tipping point. What do others think?

Email Ben
There's also more stuff here.

News from Kyrgyzstan (German media)

Just two seconds ago, the Kyrgyz protests were the top story on German Google News. Even my bread and butter (despite all its shortcomings) Spiegel Online reprinted an AP story, for the first time offering their readers (it's the biggest German online news source) an analysis of the events.

The title of the story is fairly accurate: "Revolution Without A Figurehead" (what follows is my clumsy translation):

Initially, Akayev seemed to be ready to make concessions towards the opposition movement and ordered a probe into the elections results. Today, his spokesman Abdil Segisbaev said that the opposition movement is nothing more than a bunch of criminals attempting a coup d'etat. These are in close connection with the drug mafia and want to seize power in Osh and Jalalabad. To make the movement face facts, the newly-elected representatives of the parliament should start their work as soon as possible. "That would stabilise the situation in Kyrgyzstan", head of of the Central Election Commission Sulaiman Imanbaev said.

The article was written by AP writer Bagila Bukharbayeva, does anyone out there know whether she writes in English, and this is just a translation?

The story also refers to the furious mob:

The situation is explosive, but most anti-Akayev demonstrators seem to be moderate. A group of 50 young men from the opposition camp has reinforced Osh police. (...) "Our common goal is security in the city", says the group's leader Basarbai Soltuev.

German news show 'Tagesschau' has a short report, summing up events. It mentions that Javier Solana, EU foreign representative has joined the choir of world statesmen calling for moderacy.

The Austrian 'Wiener Zeitung' reports on the opposition's appeal to Moscow. It seems as if Bakiev is positioning himself ever more to become the opposition's 'figurehead':

One of the opposition's leaders, Kurmanbek Bakiev, has called upon the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to ease the 'explosive' tensions [in Kyrgyzstan]. "The situation is a threat towards peace and stability in all Central Asia", the letter said.

Kurmanbek Bakiev is a former Prime Minister, you can read a (fairly predictable) criticism of his person in 'Vecherniy Bishkek' (via Gateway.kg), the pro-government broadsheet:

Even using modern optical devices, it is impossible to compare Bakiev and Yuschenko, for example and Otunbaeva with Timoshenko. It is unclear why ‘opposition parties’ are so happy that 40-year old ‘orange’ managers in the Ukraine ousted 60-year old directors? Are they happy because both in Georgia and Ukraine industrialists were ousted by lawyers-economists? What are Bakiev and Otonbaeva going to celebrate and with whom do they compare themselves? Baliev represents the same generation of people as Kuchma and Yanukovich in Ukraine. By the way, he was born in 1949.

Umm, that's a, well, interesting account. The story deserves attention, though - it has some (some!) valid points. Does this man have a vision for Kyrgyzstan? VB says no:

Bakiev keeps his know-how in a secret: “I am working hard on this Programme right now. I have a vision. You will get to know about it soon.”

It is interesting to see when and why Bakiev lost his job as Prime Minister - as it is directly related to events now: In the aftermath of the Aksy incident, where five of Bekhnazarov's (a prominent opposition figure) followers were shot dead, Akaev fired the entire government, including Prime Minister Bakiev. Akaev might have smelled that Bakiev could develop into an 'enemy from within'. A report from 2002 deserves attention:

Parliament deputy Bektur Asanov told RFE/RL that the resignation came "too late," and that Akaev should apologize to the residents of Aksy, while fellow deputy Adaham Madumarov said Akaev was mistaken in thinking that dismissing the government would resolve the situation, insofar as "the matter is not about the government but the president himself."

Russian responses to the unfolding crisis can be read at the Registan, also here.

There has been an official statement yesterday:

Russia's Foreign Ministry condemned the protests, blaming "extremists".

"Extremist forces must not be allowed to use political instability to create a threat to the democratic foundations of the Kyrgyz statehood," it said in a statement.

Hat tip: Nathan

As noted in yesterday's post, the state secretary called for a rally for stability in Bishkek. My friend from Bishkek was right in assuming that there'll be protests. 'Der Standard' (Austria) says:

The capital Bishkek saw first demonstrations on Tuesday, during which the pro- and anti-Akaev camp only rallied some hundred meters away from each other.

Unfortunately, the source does not tell anything about numbers. But, probably, we're talking about less than 1,000 protesters on each side.
The same report has something on other uneasy developments:

According to an opposition spokesman, the police arrested a prominent human rights advocate, the leader of the Kyrgyz Institute for Rights and Freedom Topschubek Turgunaliev. On Monday, Shipar Schekshiev, another famous opposition figure, got arrested, too. The charges brought forward remain unknown.

News dissemination in Kyrgyzstan

First of all, thanks to my former colleagues at openDemocracy.net for plugging in yesterday's news.

Nathan has - as usual - the best roundup of events unfolding.

Some tidbits:

A friend of mine from Bishkek sends the following story:

YOUNG PEOPLE READING NEWS BRIEF FROM THE SOUTH PREPARED BY AZIZA ABDIRASULOVA AND SPREAD BY KELKEL ON THE MAIN SQUARE IN BISHKEK (10,000 COPIES TOTAL) IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE PEOPLE WITH INFORMATION THAT THE STATE MEDIA SO CAREFULLY HIDES FROM EYES AND EARS OF ITS MULTI-MILLION AUDIENCE.

PEOPLE LOOK TENSE AS THEY READ ABOUT THE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

MANY APPRECIATE THE NEWS BRIEF BEING PREPARED BOTH IN KYRGYZ AND RUSSIAN LANGUAGES

Schwartz - Fiery Phoenicia

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